ProjectRisk.
ProjectRisk is an blog that discusses topics and emerging ideas related to risk management and capital project development. I wrote a blog post about my reasons for starting a blog, you can read that here.
I’m fascinated by project planning, project management/development, risk analysis, modelling and simulation, and decision analysis. Exploring these topics together in an open (if not somewhat irreverent) manner is fun.
Me.
I’m a consultant, a researcher, and a generally curious person. I run a small consulting firm where I help clients plan, implement, and control large capital projects. I’m passionate about capital projects and using risk analysis to make better informed decisions resulting in increased return on project investments.
I’m currently enrolled in a PhD program in Mining Engineering; my research focuses on understanding, assessing, and managing risks in capital development projects. More details on my research below.
I live in Vancouver, BC, and when not reading or working, I’m exploring the local forests, mountains, and ocean. Or eating.
My Research.
I started with a simple question: If current methods for risk management are supposedly effective, why do most projects continue to go over budget and over schedule?
Current approaches to project risk management focus on prediction, planning, and control. Potential risks are identified in advance and quantitively characterized and ranked to determine the highest priority risks. Response plans are created, and then risks are monitored and controlled throughout the project.
Not all risks can be identified in advance, and rarely can risks be accurately characterized in advance. The project risk environment is dynamic and opaque; a great number of risks are unknown and unforeseeable. High uncertainties underpin these risks, and our knowledge informing our risk decisions may be critically poor. Our methods don’t provide control, they provide only the illusion of control.
My research explores the concept of adaptive risk management in capital projects. Adaptive risk management is a structured, iterative approach to managing risks that involves identifying and pursuing multiple competing options for risk resolution and incorporating learning from experimentation into the iterative process. Included in this is an evaluation of new perspectives on risk and if these new perspectives might help us better understand and manage risks.
My research questions are as follows:
- Can adopting new perspectives on risk allow better understanding, assessment, and management of project risks?
- How can adaptive methods be incorporated into project risk management to give flexibility in identifying and developing multiple mitigation options for risks where no “best-option” can be quickly identified based on initial information.
- What quantitative tools/methods will allow project teams to assess the value and cost to be paid to develop possible mitigation options, and to iteratively review the viability of options based on changing risk characteristics and changing information.